How to bet UFC 225, including Robert Whittaker-Yoel Romero
Reed KuhnESPN INSIDER
In Chicago this weekend, the UFC will host two title fights in the welterweight and middleweight divisions. Several more matchups will have title shot implications. Combine all that with the sophomore appearance of Phil "CM Punk" Brooks and a trio of heavyweight matchups, and we've got a pretty heavy fight card at UFC 225.
We'll look at the betting value for both title fights, as well as the final preliminary card matchup.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise stated, as of June 7. Raw data is provided by Fight Metric.
We'll look at the betting value for both title fights, as well as the final preliminary card matchup.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise stated, as of June 7. Raw data is provided by Fight Metric.
Middleweight title: Champion Robert Whittaker (-260) vs. No. 1 Yoel Romero (+210)
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|---|---|---|
| Last fight weight class | MW | MW |
| Age | 27.5 | 41.1 |
| Height | 72 | 72 |
| Reach | 73 | 73 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Analyzed minutes | 135.4 | 124.4 |
| Total knockdown ratio (Scored:Received) | 8:2 | 7:2 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 2.3% | 5.4% |
| Head jab accuracy | 31% | 28% |
| Head power accuracy | 34% | 38% |
| Total standup strike ratio | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Total head strike defense | 75% | 77% |
| Distance knockdown defense ("chin") | 99% | 98% |
| TD attempts per min. standing/clinch | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| Takedown accuracy | 67% | 33% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 53 | 36 |
| Takedown defense | 87% | 78% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 66% | 57% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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It's a rematch nearly a year after their first five-round fight for an interim middleweight title. Romero took the first two rounds on the cards of all three judges, while Whittaker unanimously took the final three rounds for the win. And the performance metrics agree on the close matchup.
<strike></strike>The biggest differences in the stand-up striking are Whittaker's big volume advantage against Romero's superior power. The stand-up game was primarily the difference in the first fight. Romero was 3-for-10 on takedowns in the first two rounds, then just 1-of-8 in the final three rounds. When Whittaker avoided the takedowns, he got the edge while standing. The real question is whether Romero will commit more to his wrestling, or if Whittaker's learning curve in the first fight will carry over.
Insider recommends: Last summer at UFC 213, we recommended Whittaker as a slight underdog to Romero, as well as the over on 2.5 rounds. The lean here is still toward Whittaker, but the price is much less affordable, while the total has been upped to 4.5 rounds. The value offered in the first matchup has evaporated, and this bet is likely a pass.
Romero is dangerous throughout, proven by numerous career third-round knockouts. But if Whittaker weathers the occasional storms and takedowns, he's fully capable of winning out on the cards. There could be a tightening of odds to make Whittaker slightly more attractive as a mild favorite, or we could see a run on Whittaker. In the latter case, a prop bet on Romero winning by TKO at well north of +300 (via 5Dimes) is worth a hedge.
<strike></strike>The biggest differences in the stand-up striking are Whittaker's big volume advantage against Romero's superior power. The stand-up game was primarily the difference in the first fight. Romero was 3-for-10 on takedowns in the first two rounds, then just 1-of-8 in the final three rounds. When Whittaker avoided the takedowns, he got the edge while standing. The real question is whether Romero will commit more to his wrestling, or if Whittaker's learning curve in the first fight will carry over.
Insider recommends: Last summer at UFC 213, we recommended Whittaker as a slight underdog to Romero, as well as the over on 2.5 rounds. The lean here is still toward Whittaker, but the price is much less affordable, while the total has been upped to 4.5 rounds. The value offered in the first matchup has evaporated, and this bet is likely a pass.
Romero is dangerous throughout, proven by numerous career third-round knockouts. But if Whittaker weathers the occasional storms and takedowns, he's fully capable of winning out on the cards. There could be a tightening of odds to make Whittaker slightly more attractive as a mild favorite, or we could see a run on Whittaker. In the latter case, a prop bet on Romero winning by TKO at well north of +300 (via 5Dimes) is worth a hedge.
Interim welterweight title: No. 1 Rafael dos Anjos (EV) vs. No. 4 Colby Covington (-120)
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| Category | dos Anjos | Covington |
|---|---|---|
| Last fight weight class | WW | WW |
| Age | 33.6 | 30.3 |
| Height | 68 | 71 |
| Reach | 71 | 72 |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Analyzed minutes | 294.4 | 102.9 |
| Total knockdown ratio (Scored:Received) | 5:1 | 1:0 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| Head jab accuracy | 26% | 26% |
| Head power accuracy | 29% | 28% |
| Total standup strike ratio | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Total head strike defense | 75% | 72% |
| Distance knockdown defense ("chin") | 100% | 100% |
| TD attempts per min. standing/clinch | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 40% | 54% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 59 | 17 |
| Takedown defense | 66% | 88% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 71% | 96% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.23 | 0.05 |
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The interim welterweight title will decide who faces incumbent champion Tyron Woodley, hopefully later this year. Both Covington and dos Anjos are riding solid win streaks against noteworthy divisional gatekeepers. This matchup could boil down to grappling, which we haven't seen decide a welterweight title fight since Woodley took over the division.
Dos Anjos is still fairly young given the resume he boasts. He's faced top talent in two divisions, and his grappling game is strong in both control and submissions. He's not afraid to box and generally outlands his opponents despite throwing far less volume. But when he has allowed opponents to take top control on the ground, he's lost rounds on the cards.
Covington has defined his game with high-volume, though occasionally sloppy striking, combined with frequent takedowns and strong control on the mat. At times, wrestling is all he's needed to dominate the fights, while at others he's relied on his high-paced hands and durability. He'll need to put that all together to get past someone of dos Anjos' total skill set and experience.
Insider recommends: This is a case where we have to ignore pedigree, hold our nose to the foulness of Covington's "supervillain" persona and simply trust the process. The odds have flipped already in the lead-up to the fight. We agree it's a close matchup but would bet Covington if we can get near-even odds as a favorite, and certainly as an underdog, which could be the case at times during fight week.
Dos Anjos is still fairly young given the resume he boasts. He's faced top talent in two divisions, and his grappling game is strong in both control and submissions. He's not afraid to box and generally outlands his opponents despite throwing far less volume. But when he has allowed opponents to take top control on the ground, he's lost rounds on the cards.
Covington has defined his game with high-volume, though occasionally sloppy striking, combined with frequent takedowns and strong control on the mat. At times, wrestling is all he's needed to dominate the fights, while at others he's relied on his high-paced hands and durability. He'll need to put that all together to get past someone of dos Anjos' total skill set and experience.
Insider recommends: This is a case where we have to ignore pedigree, hold our nose to the foulness of Covington's "supervillain" persona and simply trust the process. The odds have flipped already in the lead-up to the fight. We agree it's a close matchup but would bet Covington if we can get near-even odds as a favorite, and certainly as an underdog, which could be the case at times during fight week.
Heavyweights: No. 4 Curtis Blaydes (-185) vs. No. 2 Alistair Overeem (+155)
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| Category | Blaydes | Overeem |
|---|---|---|
| Last fight weight class | HW | HW |
| Age | 27.3 | 38.1 |
| Height | 76 | 76 |
| Reach | 82.5 | 80 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Analyzed minutes | 44.7 | 121.0 |
| Total knockdown ratio (Scored:Received) | 1:01 | 8:6 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 3.8% | 5.3% |
| Head jab accuracy | 32% | 63% |
| Head power accuracy | 21% | 50% |
| Total standup strike ratio | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Total head strike defense | 66% | 70% |
| Distance knockdown defense ("chin") | 98% | 93% |
| TD attempts per min. standing/clinch | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| Takedown accuracy | 49% | 33% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 4 | 25 |
| Takedown defense | 25% | 84% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 98% | 88% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.00 | 0.13 |
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<strike></strike>Blaydes might be having déjà vu with the stylistic contrast he's facing yet again. Overeem is a feared former K-1 striker, precise and powerful, but he rarely engages in the ground game. He's a larger, more exaggerated version of Mark Hunt, though perhaps with less durability. Blaydes recently faced Hunt, and despite being knocked down early, he managed to wrestle him for three stifling rounds for a unanimous decision win. He is still equipped to do the same to Overeem but will face a stronger, rangier opponent with even more accurate hands than Hunt. We've now seen that even a fresh fighter like Blaydes is vulnerable to a single clean shot, even if he's taken much less damage than most in his young career. Such is the reality of any heavyweight fight.
Insider recommends: This matchup is very similar on paper to Blaydes' last outing, but with Overeem having a few advantages in the clinch and at range, which Hunt did not. It may take longer to secure, but we'd still bet Blaydes to wrestle for three rounds here, just not as big as we did against Hunt. The beginning of each round will be dangerous for an upset.<strike></strike>
<strike></strike><strike></strike><strike></strike>Insider recommends: This matchup is very similar on paper to Blaydes' last outing, but with Overeem having a few advantages in the clinch and at range, which Hunt did not. It may take longer to secure, but we'd still bet Blaydes to wrestle for three rounds here, just not as big as we did against Hunt. The beginning of each round will be dangerous for an upset.<strike></strike>
